Did Kentucky governor’s race kill political polling?
Polls in the Kentucky governor's race consistently showed Democrat Jack Conway with a slight lead over Republican Matt Bevin, but Bevin won handily, the latest blow to political polling operations.
Politicians like to say that the only poll that matters is on Election Day. That’s starting to be more true, according to analysis in Governing Magazine.
Writer Alan Greenblatt points out that polls in the Kentucky governor’s race consistently showed Democrat Jack Conway with a slight lead over Republican Matt Bevin. Not only did Bevin win, but it wasn’t even close, as he took 53 percent of the vote to Conway’s 44 percent.
The day after the election, The Lexington Herald-Leader announced it would dump Survey USA as its pollster.
“We might as well buy monkeys and dartboards vs. what we had here with Survey USA,” Greenblatt quotes Kentucky Republican consultant Scott Jennings.
“The problems aren’t limited to the Bluegrass State,” the article says. “Last year, polls around the country underestimated the Republican strength in several Senate races, as well as the governor’s race in Wisconsin. Conversely, in 2012, the Gallup Poll showed Mitt Romney beating Barack Obama in the presidential election.”
Read the full Governing Magazine story here.
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